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Sony - $SNE:
$13bn gaming revenue from Digital Software & Network services alone, up ~38% yoy. ~50% ROIC.
36.4mn PlayStationPlus Subs.
$2.1bn music streaming revenue.
Bought back stock last year for the 1st time ever.
$13bn gaming revenue from Digital Software & Network services alone, up ~38% yoy. ~50% ROIC.
36.4mn PlayStationPlus Subs.
$2.1bn music streaming revenue.
Bought back stock last year for the 1st time ever.
$SNE is probably an above average idea that's not cool enough to excite anyone. (I have no position, just turning rocks).
Roughly $50bn EV feels low-ish for everything you get! Shareholder yield ex stock price upside considering buybacks+dividend already seems decent!
Roughly $50bn EV feels low-ish for everything you get! Shareholder yield ex stock price upside considering buybacks+dividend already seems decent!
Not sure if old $SNE is in the public conscious like that, but the statement "Second biggest gaming company after Tencent", would be accurate.
And if I'm not mistaken, they're the biggest "music company" out there.
And if I'm not mistaken, they're the biggest "music company" out there.
$SNE ticks a lot of boxes. Gaming as a service, music streaming, image-sensors (IoT+EVs). Net-cash, profitable. Low multiples. Obvious value if unlocked from SOTP perspective. Buyback.
Maybe comparable to $MSFT couple years ago: people just stopped looking / taking it seriously.
Maybe comparable to $MSFT couple years ago: people just stopped looking / taking it seriously.
Something that currently goes through my head a lot is the thesis that music as such is mispriced.
E.g. I'm quite sure that the music market size is rather irrelevant for $SPOT. It's simply human's time. One has to imagine billions of people "streaming" music many hours a day.
E.g. I'm quite sure that the music market size is rather irrelevant for $SPOT. It's simply human's time. One has to imagine billions of people "streaming" music many hours a day.
Let's play another game of #MagicMerger. This time, we try to corner the music market.
It comes to mind:
$VIVHY ($35bn), $SNE (~$50bn for whole Sony!), $TME ($22bn), $SPOT ($25bn), $SIRI ($32bn)
There aren't that many music related public companies, right?
It comes to mind:
$VIVHY ($35bn), $SNE (~$50bn for whole Sony!), $TME ($22bn), $SPOT ($25bn), $SIRI ($32bn)
There aren't that many music related public companies, right?
Even if you just buy them all, it's still cheaper than $NFLX alone.
...Moat would be very strong if you merge labels with demand aggregators.
Just think about how the dynamic changes for $TME and $SPOT if $TCEHY buys UMG from $VIVHY.
...Moat would be very strong if you merge labels with demand aggregators.
Just think about how the dynamic changes for $TME and $SPOT if $TCEHY buys UMG from $VIVHY.
If "access to music" (ex live, e.g. concerts) was a single public company that you had to use if you want music, I believe its market cap would vastly exceed $100bn.
I think it's a no-brainer that subscribing to a music streaming service is a future must have. Tech is too good.
I think it's a no-brainer that subscribing to a music streaming service is a future must have. Tech is too good.
I also think that $AMZN, $AAPL and $GOOG can't win it all. People WANT consumer-facing companies to succeed that are not big tech. There's fatigue.
Think nobody mentioned such a thesis yet.
One example: Linux anti-movement maybe was strongest when $MSFT was super dominant.
Think nobody mentioned such a thesis yet.
One example: Linux anti-movement maybe was strongest when $MSFT was super dominant.
Not easy to be sure if $SPOT will be this future music mega cap (sth that I in fact do predict to exist in the future), but I'm quite sure the market is wrong to let $SIRI trade on some current (irrelevant) earnings multiple and give it an EV of $32bn EV vs. $SPOT only $22.5bn.
Disclosure: Long $SPOT, $TME (both in small amounts), and $TCEHY.
I am aware of the $VIVHY thesis, but haven't done enough work on it yet, as I spent my time on $SPOT because it seems like the better long-term idea.
I think music is mispriced if you can buy it all for <$100bn.
I am aware of the $VIVHY thesis, but haven't done enough work on it yet, as I spent my time on $SPOT because it seems like the better long-term idea.
I think music is mispriced if you can buy it all for <$100bn.
If somebody has good recent buyside writeups in regard to $SNE, $TME or $VIVHY, please send! Would like to own $SNE if they would be split into gaming, music and so on and give me a timeline for that. At avg. gaming companies' p/s, Sony Gaming would be a winner!
One last thing. If I was $FB, I would buy $SPOT pretty much regardless of price. It would be a ludicrous bargain anyway.
C'mon, WhatsApp for $19bn and $SPOT basically the same price?
$FB would get what they need most: Coolness, utility and public goodwill.
C'mon, WhatsApp for $19bn and $SPOT basically the same price?
$FB would get what they need most: Coolness, utility and public goodwill.
With $FB, $SPOT's user base would scale quickly.
$FB had an entrance into mass subscription revenue.
The non-advertisement part of $SPOT is a needed balance to $FB's ads.
Ads on $SPOT would reach bns, annoy, & here we go, $SPOT has many hundreds of millions of new paying subs.
$FB had an entrance into mass subscription revenue.
The non-advertisement part of $SPOT is a needed balance to $FB's ads.
Ads on $SPOT would reach bns, annoy, & here we go, $SPOT has many hundreds of millions of new paying subs.
$SPOT has a weird problem: They must be/seem as weak as possible versus the labels. So, no $ARPU expansion until the labels are weaker.
$FB can bridge that decade.
At some point, $SPOT ARPU should go higher because access to music is _certainly_ worth >>$120/y to the avg. human.
$FB can bridge that decade.
At some point, $SPOT ARPU should go higher because access to music is _certainly_ worth >>$120/y to the avg. human.
Also, $TCEHY is buying more $SPOT. Zuckerberg missing out on $SPOT in my opinion endangers the long-term success of $FB's platforms. (Also long $FB, no surprises). An integrated music offering is a killer feature.
Making $SPOT social would be another thing on it's own. See $TME.
Making $SPOT social would be another thing on it's own. See $TME.
There's zero debate about it, but to me, if Mark Zuckerberg doesn't buy $SPOT, I think this would be one of his biggest mistakes ever.
$SPOT into $FB instantly triples in value and ensures long-term happiness of users.
Connecting people without music = slow-death of platform.
$SPOT into $FB instantly triples in value and ensures long-term happiness of users.
Connecting people without music = slow-death of platform.
$SPOT has a very high chance to be worth much more in the future. Only thing that matters is future ARPU und future sub numbers.
Medium-term ARPU is very irrelevant.
Imo, downside is extremely limited because $FB doesn't have a music offering vs $AMZN, $GOOG, $AAPL.
Medium-term ARPU is very irrelevant.
Imo, downside is extremely limited because $FB doesn't have a music offering vs $AMZN, $GOOG, $AAPL.
