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I’ve seen a lot of people talking about how DK Metcalf has the highest bust potential of the top WR prospects this year. I disagree. My thread for #DynastyFootball twitter and #DraftTwitter
First we need to define what a “bust” is, because it’s a term that gets thrown around a lot. Some people determine bust by draft capital. I understand that, but I don’t agree. If you draft someone in the top 10 and end up with a quality starter rather than a superstar, that’s ok.
There aren’t ten superstars in every class. They don’t all go top ten. Getting a quality player that contributes is not a bust in any area of the draft IMO. Maybe not good value, maybe didn’t live up to expectations, but not a bust.
Rather than judge a player by his draft slot, we should be judging them by their contributions. To me, a “bust” is a player that you want to replace at the end of their rookie contract. If a player isn’t a quality player at their position at the end of their contract, they “bust”
Everyone won’t agree with me on that, but I think that is the whole point of determining a player’s “floor”. You look at the traits and determine his worst case scenario. His best case scenario, or ceiling, gives you a range of possible outcomes. You grade based on those outcomes
DK Metcalf may have the best chance to not live up to expectations, but that’s because his expectations have been put so high that anything other than the next Julio will seem like a disappointment to many. Meanwhile, a player like Harry that may go in the second is called safe.
Look at Metcalfs traits. He’s big. He’s really fast. He has good releases at the line of scrimmage. He varies speed in his routes well. He is physical in his routes and at the catch point. He catches the ball in traffic. He tracks the ball well. He can leap and extend.
He’s physical after the catch and has breakaway speed in the open field. Sure there are negative traits as well. His agility scores obviously immediately come to mind. This shows up in his tape. He isn’t sharp in his breaks and he doesn’t explode out of them.
His route running needs work, though I think his attention to detail in his vertical routes is exceptional. Basically, his negative traits can be summed up by, “he doesn’t win on the horizontal plane”.
So, let’s assume he doesn’t ever get better in his areas of weakness, and figure out what his “floor” is based on what we know he CAN do. His releases, speed, catch through contact, tracking, vertical route running, speed and leaping ability give him a floor as a plus deep threat
His leaping ability, releases, catch through contact, and ability to extend for the football give him a floor as a red zone threat.
If his floor is a player that can double as a deep threat and a red zone threat, he will find a role as a quality starter in the NFL. He may not be Julio, but his floor is as high as any WR prospect in this class.
If a quality deep threat and quality red zone target is what Metcalf looks like as a “bust”, I’m absolutely ok with that.
