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I continue to believe the Neustadt interpretation of Trump is the correct one: this is a weak president in in danger of a complete failed presidency. Today's cave-in speech on the shutdown is further evidence of this. 1/
(For background, I wrote up my general argument about this here:) https://www.vox.com/the-big-idea/2017/12/4/16733450/donald-trump-weak-president-neustadt
(And I've written on executive branch control issues here:) https://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/01/opinion/trump-hicks-kushner.html
(And I've written on his legislative weakness in the 115th Congress here:) https://www.nationalreview.com/2018/04/trump-agenda-neutered-by-republican-congress/
Presidents compete with lots of other actors in the government—elected members of Congress, appointed administration officials, civil servants, White House staffers—for influence over legislation and executive branch administration.
Ultimately, a president’s success/failure rests on the ability to persuade others that the costs of opposing him are too high. He just can't do that on the Wall; the GOP doesn't want it. They don't want to embarrass him, but aren't gonna help him get it.
And, in a more general sense, Trump just looks supremely weak in DC on this dimension. He can’t get the GOP to do anything legislatively that is on his agenda but not theirs. https://www.nationalreview.com/2018/04/trump-agenda-neutered-by-republican-congress/
He constantly complains about his own cabinet officials, who appear to ignore him regularly. Agencies that he ostensibly heads are targets of public threats and condemnation, as if he's just an onlooker, helpless to influence personnell he himself appointed.
He can’t even stop the record-setting departures and the legendary-level leaks at his own White House, where power-hungry staffers engage in endless intrigue, precisely because they know it is so easy to manipulate the president if you can get the face time.
If you believe Neustadt, the path to sustained power in the presidency is developing and guarding informal influence by having a stellar professional reputation in Washington as someone who gets his way and punishes those who stand in his way.
Trump is a *disaster* in this respect, his professional reputation in DC a joke. Despite his supporters’ belief that he is “tough” and doesn’t bend to political pressure, DC views the opposite: he constantly reverses positions and backs down from stands.
This happens all the time in foreign policy. He questions NATO Article V. He’s going to close the border. He says he believes Putin over U.S. intelligence services. He says he believes MBS about the killing of a journalist. And on and on and on.
And now it has happened on the Wall. That is the essence of how a president can make himself look weak. You just keep backing down from public positions, and pretty soon everyone knows that if they just apply enough pressure, you’ll back down next time too.
And that’s costly. Because instead of seeing the president take a strong position, stick with it, and get backed by a wide array of actors, we see the president blurt out a dumb position, defend it for a while, and then come around to the Washington consensus anyway.
His word—even his public word—is garbage. And everyone in Washington knows it. And that’s very dangerous for a president.
Neustadt's other concern, the president's public prestigue, is trickier. Trump's polling is certainly in the garbage, and the Wall debacle has helped get it there. But that's not exactly what Neustadt had in mind. He was more thinking about how DC *considers* that public opinion.
And Trump certainly has many GOP elected officials worried about crossing him in public on votes and whatnot. But this has just led Congres to do things like use negative agenda setting or McConnell's embarrassing side-by-side vote to pin POTUS in w/o upsetting his base at them.
But the Wall, oh lord, the Wall. This is a Neustadt debacle of epic proportions. First, Trump proclaimed he would proudly own a shutdown. Then instead of negotiating, he just publicly threatened people. When they all ignored him, he threatened to use the National Emergency Act.
In essence, Trump is revelaing to everyone in DC, and the country, that he has no informal juice. He might lean on his command authority under the NEA, but everyone knows that's a sign of weakness, a Neustadt self-executing command. And he won't even do that. He's too boxed in.
You think after all this Republicans are going to be quick to rush to his defense, or support him on his future legislative or executivec follies? https://www.washingtonpost.com/powerpost/this-is-your-fault-gop-senators-clash-over-shutdown-inside-private-luncheon/2019/01/24/cde0ca22-2045-11e9-8b59-0a28f2191131_story.html
You think, after all this, Pelosi is going to be scared to challenge him? https://www.apnews.com/9067168fa95b41099ee5616225f07061
You think his right wing is going to believe he can deliver? https://twitter.com/AnnCoulter/status/1088888030901882880
Of course, in the big picture, the powers of the presidency are vast, so even the weakest of presidents has many tools to influence public life. Trump is going to be a factor for as long as he's around.
But the idea Trump is going to somehow master DC and turn this around into a powerful presidency seems like a dimmer idea by the day.
Past Neustadt-Trump rants: https://twitter.com/MattGlassman312/status/971194341564788737
