1 / A fact for the next time someone tells you trans people are at an astronomically high risk of violence:

In 2017, the rest of Americans, looked at as one average, were just over 1.66x more likely to be murdered than a trans American.

Open the thread to see the numbers ↓
3 / In June of 2016, Time reported on a UCLA study which found that 1.4 million Americans identified as trans. That number, if anything, grew in 2017. But let& #39;s assume a little padding. That gives us 28 murdered out of 1.4 million. http://time.com/4389936/transgender-americans-statistic-how-many/">https://time.com/4389936/t...
4 / According to Google, there were 325.7 million Americans in 2017. We want to subtract 1.4 million from that to look at non-trans Americans, and that gives us 324.3 million.
5 / So how many Americans were murdered in 2017? 17,284 cases of murder and non-negligent manslaughter occurred that year, according to the FBI https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s/2017/crime-in-the-u.s.-2017/topic-pages/murder.">https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-... . The numbers are broken out by state here, if you& #39;re curious: https://www.statista.com/statistics/191134/reported-murder-and-nonnegligent-manslaughter-cases-in-the-us-since-1990/">https://www.statista.com/statistic...
6 / We want to subtract 28 from 17,284. That gives us 17,256.

In 2017, 17,256 non-trans Americans were murdered out of 324.3 million.
7 / So that& #39;s how I reached that "non-trans Americans are 1.66x more likely to be murdered than trans Americans" statement: compare 28 out of 1.4 million to 17,256 out of 324.3 million. Check the maths for yourself.
8 / This is America-specific. A country like Brazil might be very different (although I& #39;d be more suspicious of stats).

I felt the need to check these stats myself because we are constantly hearing about how "trans people are at an unbelievable risk for violence."
9 / Just today, @kittypurrzog had this very common idea thrown at her (with the requisite histrionics).

There& #39;s little question that Twitter& #39;s new misgendering/deadnaming rule relies on this urban legend — we saw #MeghanMurphy banned just the other day because of it.
10 / If you see any fundamental flaws in my maths, please let me know. I& #39;d like to tighten up this argument if needed, and it& #39;s an argument — unlike #transcult ideology — that could be objectively proven wrong.
11 / Just for the sake of adding way more padding, and because I assume someone will say "trans people don& #39;t get their murders recorded!" (quite possible true in Brazil), let& #39;s double the rate of trans murders.

It& #39;s still less than the rate for non-trans Americans.
12 / Now self-harm — I& #39;d be willing to bet that& #39;s a different story. But it seems like we can say murders of trans Americans happen at a far lower rate than the rest of Americans as a whole. I suspect this ratio will get wider as the FtM pop. increases.
13 / For years now, we& #39;ve been told that trans murder is an epidemic in the US. Here& #39;s a classic example: http://time.com/3999348/transgender-murders-2015/.">https://time.com/3999348/t...

Is @snopes interested in this?

As for this thread, that& #39;s the END.
Addendum to this thread from 11/2018: https://www.hrc.org/resources/violence-against-the-transgender-community-in-2019

In">https://www.hrc.org/resources... 2019, there were about the same number of trans people murdered as 2018 and also 2017.

If you& #39;re betting money, 2020 would be about 25–30, roughly the same again.
In June of 2020, HRC& #39;s count is sitting at 16: https://www.hrc.org/resources/violence-against-the-trans-and-gender-non-conforming-community-in-2020

Assuming">https://www.hrc.org/resources... it& #39;s a bit higher in summer and dips down in the fall, 25–30 seems like a pretty good estimate.

If it is indeed 30, expect histrionics about "a 15% increase!!!" when there are 4 more from 2019& #39;s 26.
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