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1 / A fact for the next time someone tells you trans people are at an astronomically high risk of violence:
In 2017, the rest of Americans, looked at as one average, were just over 1.66x more likely to be murdered than a trans American.
Open the thread to see the numbers ↓
In 2017, the rest of Americans, looked at as one average, were just over 1.66x more likely to be murdered than a trans American.
Open the thread to see the numbers ↓
2 / https://www.thedailybeast.com/2018-is-shaping-up-to-be-another-terrible-year-for-trans-murders The Daily Beast reported in July of 2018 that 28 trans Americans were murdered in 2017. As of July 2018, there has been 14 trans Americans killed, so basically on par for the same.
3 / In June of 2016, Time reported on a UCLA study which found that 1.4 million Americans identified as trans. That number, if anything, grew in 2017. But let's assume a little padding. That gives us 28 murdered out of 1.4 million. http://time.com/4389936/transgender-americans-statistic-how-many/
4 / According to Google, there were 325.7 million Americans in 2017. We want to subtract 1.4 million from that to look at non-trans Americans, and that gives us 324.3 million.
5 / So how many Americans were murdered in 2017? 17,284 cases of murder and non-negligent manslaughter occurred that year, according to the FBI https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s/2017/crime-in-the-u.s.-2017/topic-pages/murder. . The numbers are broken out by state here, if you're curious: https://www.statista.com/statistics/191134/reported-murder-and-nonnegligent-manslaughter-cases-in-the-us-since-1990/
6 / We want to subtract 28 from 17,284. That gives us 17,256.
In 2017, 17,256 non-trans Americans were murdered out of 324.3 million.
In 2017, 17,256 non-trans Americans were murdered out of 324.3 million.
7 / So that's how I reached that "non-trans Americans are 1.66x more likely to be murdered than trans Americans" statement: compare 28 out of 1.4 million to 17,256 out of 324.3 million. Check the maths for yourself.
8 / This is America-specific. A country like Brazil might be very different (although I'd be more suspicious of stats).
I felt the need to check these stats myself because we are constantly hearing about how "trans people are at an unbelievable risk for violence."
I felt the need to check these stats myself because we are constantly hearing about how "trans people are at an unbelievable risk for violence."
9 / Just today, @kittypurrzog had this very common idea thrown at her (with the requisite histrionics).
There's little question that Twitter's new misgendering/deadnaming rule relies on this urban legend — we saw #MeghanMurphy banned just the other day because of it.
There's little question that Twitter's new misgendering/deadnaming rule relies on this urban legend — we saw #MeghanMurphy banned just the other day because of it.
10 / If you see any fundamental flaws in my maths, please let me know. I'd like to tighten up this argument if needed, and it's an argument — unlike #transcult ideology — that could be objectively proven wrong.
11 / Just for the sake of adding way more padding, and because I assume someone will say "trans people don't get their murders recorded!" (quite possible true in Brazil), let's double the rate of trans murders.
It's still less than the rate for non-trans Americans.
It's still less than the rate for non-trans Americans.
12 / Now self-harm — I'd be willing to bet that's a different story. But it seems like we can say murders of trans Americans happen at a far lower rate than the rest of Americans as a whole. I suspect this ratio will get wider as the FtM pop. increases.
13 / For years now, we've been told that trans murder is an epidemic in the US. Here's a classic example: http://time.com/3999348/transgender-murders-2015/.
Is @snopes interested in this?
As for this thread, that's the END.
Is @snopes interested in this?
As for this thread, that's the END.
Addendum to this thread from 11/2018: https://www.hrc.org/resources/violence-against-the-transgender-community-in-2019
In 2019, there were about the same number of trans people murdered as 2018 and also 2017.
If you're betting money, 2020 would be about 25–30, roughly the same again.
In 2019, there were about the same number of trans people murdered as 2018 and also 2017.
If you're betting money, 2020 would be about 25–30, roughly the same again.
In June of 2020, HRC's count is sitting at 16: https://www.hrc.org/resources/violence-against-the-trans-and-gender-non-conforming-community-in-2020
Assuming it's a bit higher in summer and dips down in the fall, 25–30 seems like a pretty good estimate.
If it is indeed 30, expect histrionics about "a 15% increase!!!" when there are 4 more from 2019's 26.
Assuming it's a bit higher in summer and dips down in the fall, 25–30 seems like a pretty good estimate.
If it is indeed 30, expect histrionics about "a 15% increase!!!" when there are 4 more from 2019's 26.
