1/ On July 11th 2018, @counterchekist tweeted that something big was coming in the Mueller investigation. Two days later, 12 Russians were indicted on charges related to the DNC computer hack.

How could he have known? Follow along for a little experiment that will explain it

2/ The routine goes like this: @counterchekist makes a comment such as:

“FEATHERS11 hitting soon…”
“FEATHERS13 armed and ready…”

“FEATHERS” is his coded variation of the classic “buckle up” or “I am hearing something big is about to drop” tweet.

3/ Next, anticipation soon builds among his loyal 100,000 followers (more than most Senators and includes many large verified accounts). What could it be? What does he know?

4/ This person logs it on her feathers spreadsheet

5/ Seriously, that fan keeps a spreadsheet on him.

6/ Some development happens in the Mueller investigation and @counterchekist reiterates his original claim and declares victory, further reinforcing the idea among his followers that he must hold secret knowledge of Mueller’s next move.

7/ So how does he do it? Does he have IC or Mueller connections? Is he really Obama as @louisemensch says?

8/ This is a technique used in mind reading tricks called “shotgunning.” If enough shots are fired off, something will eventually hit.

9/ Anytime he tweets a prognostication and we see an indictment soon after, he will retweet it to remind everyone. Tweets like this one, 2.5 months before next indictment, are relegated to the ash heap of history. This causes us to remember the hits and forget the many misses.

10/ FEATHERS - THE TEST:

Given the vagueness of his tweets, it’s difficult to come up with a real way to test their accuracy. But I will give it a try by judging how quickly a development follows his announcements.

11/ Here are the indictments/guilty pleas so far and their dates

Manfort, Gates, Papadopoulos – 10/27/2018
Flynn – 12/01/17
Troll Farm/Pinedo – 2/16/18
Alex van der Zwaan – 2/20/18
Kilimnik – 6/8/18
Hackers – 7/13/18
Cohen – 8/21/18

12/ FEATHERS Dates:

FEATHERS 11,12 – 10/3/17
FEATHERS 13 – 11/6/17
FEATHERS 14,15 – 11/28/17
FEATHERS 16,17,18 – 12/6/17
FEATHERS 19,20 – 12/8/17
FEATHERS 21 – 7/11/18
FEATHERS 22,23 – 7/17/18
FEATHERS 24 – 8/4/18
FEATHERS 25,26 – 8/7/18

13/ I took the closet FEATHERS announcement before each Mueller milestone date. For example, FEATHERS11 was announced on 10/3. The next indictment occurred on 10/27. Therefore, he was 24 days off.

14/ If Excel didn’t let me down, an average of 23 days passes between the time @counterchekist makes his announcement and the time someone is charged.

15/ Now, instead of picking the dates he picked to make a “FEATHERS” announcement, imagine that he had picked these dates instead:

10/5/2017
11/4/2017
12/3/2017
1/1/2018
1/31/2018
3/1/2018
3/31/2018
4/29/2018
5/29/2018
6/28/2018
7/27/2018

16/ If he had picked those dates, only 19 days would pass on average between his announcements and an indictment/guilty plea. What’s special about those dates? Those are the dates we had full moons.

17/ What do full moons have to do with Mueller’s legal moves? Absolutely nothing. They are totally unrelated, exogenous events. Yet they still give us a more timely prediction.

18/ Obviously, @counterchekist has the luxury of reading the tea leaves. We know the grand jury meets Friday, so it makes sense to tweet something Wednesday or Thursday. News reports of search warrants and other things that can tip us off that indictments could be forthcoming

19/ The point is that he’s not even beating randomness even with all the information from 24 hour news. He’s not ex CIA. He’s not Obama. He has no connections. He’s picking dates and hoping to get lucky. And thousands and thousands are falling for it.

20/ It’s a trick known as cold reading and has been used by “mind readers” for hundreds of years that involves making vague statements and high probability guesses to fool the audience.

21/ Mueller has indicted 30+ people. If you make a prognostication every month it is a statistical inevitability some of your guesses will be close in time.

22/ Then he has the added luxury of never having to actually predict what will happen. Remember, he tells us only AFTER the news breaks if that is what he predicted or not. “FEATHERS11” could literally be anything he needs it to be.

23/ It could be an article stating a new investigation was opened,

24/ it could be a new indictment,

25/ it could be a witness flipping,

26/ Just like with the TV psychics who talk to the dead, the performer makes very broad statements and watches as eager followers tend to make connections themselves that aren’t there.

27/ Why do so many fall for this? Maybe it’s therapeutic to think everything is under control and Trump will be gone “SOON.” Maybe a tendency to trust those like us (anti-Trump). Maybe it is a bias resulting from his tweets confirming our prior beliefs.

28/ I’m sure most reading this know @counterchekist had his identity revealed very publicly and it confirms this thread’s point since there is no explanation why he would have inside intel. I didn’t want to use his personal info here, but the problem is much bigger than just him:

29/ If someone makes a post and the implication is that they know something big and they won’t give you any details, just know it’s almost certainly fake. When a person does this, please unfollow. Don’t give them the attention they crave or the pleasure of lying to you.

30/ If you still follow this poster and have any evidence he has inside intel, please share. If you don’t have such evidence, and still follow him, maybe you should look in the mirror and ask yourself why someone who routinely tries to deceive you is worthy of your time. /end