Thread on the oil #embargo of 1973
1- On this day, October 17, several Arab oil ministers recommended the use of oil as a weapon in retaliation for the Nixon Administration's support for Israel during the (Ramadan or October war) for Arabs and the (Yom Kippur War) for Israelis.

2- On the 18th, couple of countries announced their own embargo, but the official announcement came on the 19th. I will be posting a lot of materials on this. fro those who want to read in details see: https://twitter.com/anasalhajji/status/1051529545361367042

3- Remember, that was 45 years ago, the world was completely different then, with Pan Arab nationalism was sweeping the Arab world. For its success, military leaders who ruled Arab countries wanted to show their public some success, hence the idea of the embargo was born.

4- Name:
- Is it an OPEC embargo? NO. Only some arab countries from OPEC and non-OPEC participated.
- Is it and OAPEC embargo? NO, some OAPEC members did not participate
- Is it an Arab embargo? NO, some Arab countries did not participate
- Prefered: It is the 1973 oil embargo!

5- Coincidence? (do not read too much into this)
- #Iran did not participate in the embargo. we know what happened next!
- #Iraq did not participate in the embargo, we know what happened next
- #Gaddafi of Libya cheated on the embargo, we know what happened next!
#Embargo #Oil

6- Impact
People attribute the fourfold increase in oil prices to the embargo. Absolutely NOT correct. I will post evidence later. People forget that OPEC raised posted prices by 70%, thanks to the Shah of Iran, on Oct 16 after multi year negotiations with oil companies failed.

7- The embargo failed to achieve its "DECLARED" objectives. I cannot put enough lines under "DECLARED". But it did achieve many "Undeclared" objectives that were beneficial for both the governments of some Arab countries and the United States.

8- I do not want to talk about the "Undeclared" objectives, but here is a hint, the only reason why some countries continued to supply oil to the industrial countries for 45 years without any interruption was the "OIL EMBARGO of 1973"

9- Finally,
Fact1: The US energy crisis started in the late 1960s

Fact2: Government intervention made the energy crisis worse (environmental regulations, price controls)

Fact3: The embargo was the straw that broke the camel's back

Fact 4: Everything was blamed on the straw!

10- This is an amazing historical info: On this day, 45 years ago, the WSJ published this story: related to #6 above. OPEC, with push from Shah of Iran, raised posted prices. The embargo came later!

#Oil_History #Embargo

11- You would think, when oil-producing countries stand against international oil companies, mostly American, and raise oil prices significantly, will get front page news. It was amazing to see the news above was on page 18 in the main business newspaper in America!
#Oil_History

12- This is again about point 6. #OPEC increased posted prices before the embargo. Why? because prices were very low and lower than other markets. Iran pushed hard for the increase.
#Oil_History #oil

13- All evidence in early 1970s point out to that fact that KIng Faisal of Saudi Arabia has never believed in the oil weapon. Everytime the issue came up, he explained why it should not be used. Sydney, on October 19, everything changed.

14- Western literature focuses on one point: The Nixon administration promised King Faisal to be neutral in the Arab/Israeli war, but Nixon decided to send military aid to Israel. That angered the King and made him decide to cut oil supplies to the US.

15- The issue was more complex than just Nixon & his secretary of state Kissinger lying to king. The King was opposed to the oil weapon, It was against his conviction. It was something more than Just the Nixon-Kissinger thing. He never trusted them in the first place.
#Oil

16- Here is a gold nugget about King Faisal of #SaudiArabia regarding the use of oil as a weapon: (source from Book pictures above)
#Oil_History
#oil #Emabrgo

17- Here is the Saudi point of view on the use of oil as a weapon in November 1972 from none other than oil minister Ahamd Zaki Yamani
#Oil_History #oil #Embargo

18- Here is another gold nugget:
A statement about the oil weapon from Prince Abdullah (who became later King Abdullah) in 1967. Amazing sense of the problem: It was teh Arab street that everyone was worried about (But Nixon and Kissinger never cared)
#Oil_History #oil

19- To conclude, at the end, it was about tradeoffs. The embargo was the least of all evils, even for the West in general and the US in particular. While the embargo failed to achieve its DECLARED objectives, it ACHIEVED its undeclared objectives.
#Oil_History #Embargo #oil

20- For evidence that the energy crisis existed in the US long before the embargo, check #Oil_History or search twitter for @anasalhajji + Crisis

21- Just to be clear: The fourfold increase in oil prices was caused by multiple factors.

22- the role of panic cannot be ignored. after all, there were reports saying oil production will peak and end soon:

23- This is amazing, and not that many people know it.

The role of #Iran in increasing oil prices in 1973-74, although it did NOT participate in the 1973 embargo. (

from a paper of mine published in the Journal of Energy and Development
@JoeMcMonigle @JasonBordoff

24- Here are some evidence showing that the energy crisis was present in the US long before the Arab-Israeli war and long before the embargo. as stated earlier, the embargo was the straw that broke the camel's back, but people remember only the straw! #Oil_History

25- If the embargo that started on October 19, 1973, caused the US energy crisis, how do we explain this?

26- How do we explain this?

27- or this:
#Oil_History #oil #Embargo

28- and this

29- In fact, many of us has seen the pictures of gasoline lines in the early 1970s. Most articles that talks about the oil embargo show picture of gasoline lines, but they do NOT show you the exact date! Many of these pictures were taken way BEFORE the embargo! #Oil_History

30- Here is an example, this picture was taken in early June 1973, yet it is used to show gasoline shortages during the embargo. It has nothing to do with the embargo.
#Oil_History #oil #Embargo

31- In real terms (adjusted for inflation), today's oil prices are higher than that of the embargo of 1973. But notice the difference: the increase in 1973-74 was larger and came after a long period of stability and relatively declining prices. see next

32- Regardless, despite the fact that oil prices today are higher than the post embargo prices, per capita income in the US and Europe buys more oil today than then, by a large margin!
#Oil_History #oil #Embargo

33- Here is more evidence that the energy crisis was present the US years before the #Embargo. This is from Time magazine, May 22, 1972. The embargo was on October 19, 1973!
"for third straight year the US faces a fuel and energy shortage" WOW
#Oil_History

34- More evidence on presence of energy crisis before the #embargo

#Oil_History

35- Saved the best for last. It cannot be clearer than this: Americans have been warned since 1970 to expect winter fuel shortages! FOUR YEARS BEFORE THE EMBARGO!
From Time Magazine, December 25, 1972 (9 months before the embargo)
#Oil_History #Embargo #Oil