I know it's not fashionable to care what experts say about complex issues but here's a thread. I'll leave the numbering open because expect many more to join this chorus. 1/
"continuing Britain can’t prevent the Scots from using the pound, just as the USA can’t stop Ecuador from using dollars. But the lesson of the euro crisis, surely, is that sharing a common currency without having a shared federal government is very dangerous” Prof Paul Krugman 2/
“I would not recommend that option…arguably the unilateral adoption of another country’s currency is a high risk strategy for an advanced and modern industrial economy…It would be a potentially unstable currency regime...” Prof Anton Muscatelli, University of Glasgow 3/
"I do not believe that it would be seen as a stable and continuing position for a country as substantial as Scotland.” Prof Jeremy Peat, University of Strathclyde. 4/
"Neither Scotland's financial institutions nor its government would enjoy a lender of last resort, with lethal consequences in a crisis “ Martin Wolf, Chief Economics Commentator at the Financial Times 5/
“If the Scots want to have unilateral sterlingisation, that’s fine – but they will have to run a tighter ship.” Professor Steve Hanke, The Johns Hopkins University. 6/
“Scotland would have to run large budget surpluses for a long time to build up what would be a foreign currency reserve adequate to provide a makeshift lender of last resort for its banking sector.” Professor Tony Yates, University of Birmingham 7/
“a form of sterlingisation along the lines of the system run in the Isle of Man seems to suggest that the Scottish Government have rather lost the plot in terms of the currency debate.” Professor Ronald MacDonald, University of Glasgow 8/
“Scotland couldn't keep borrowing to pay for spending in excess of its tax take – the markets wouldn't allow it, especially a new state with no financial track record, with no central bank and borrowing in a foreign currency if sterling is adopted." Prof Brian Ashcroft 9/
“The implications for Scotland’s financial-services industry could hardly be worse...With no central bank supporting them, its banks and insurance companies would be seen as riskier investments and the cost of their borrowing would rise.” The Economist 10/
“Sterlingisation is not a reasonable option given the dependence of Scottish banks on the UK payment system." Professor Angus Armstrong 11/
“Advanced economies of a significant scale tend not to operate in such a monetary framework. Though an option in the short-term, it is not likely to be a long-term solution.” SNP Government Fiscal Commission 12/
“A ‘sterlingisation’ type regime has never been tried in a country of Scotland’s size or stage of development.” Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde. 13/
“sterlingisation would be unstable and expose iScotland to a range of monetary policy risks over which it had no control” Alan Trench, University College London. 14/
"An independent Scotland, if it did decide to apply to join the EU, would, of course have to meet the EU's accession criteria. But without its own monetary policy...Scotland would face a serious accession challenge." Kirsty Hughes, Scottish Centre on European Relations. 15/
"There are significant difficulties with sterlingisation. First you do not get the ability to print money...Secondly, you have no control over interest rates." Ben Thompson, Reform Scotland. 16
"the UK would set monetary policy to suit its own circumstances; and Scotland would lose the monetary policy lever because it would peg itself to the pound. As a result, all adjustments to deal with economic shocks would have to come through fiscal policy." Gemma Tetlow,IFS. 17/
“there will be no safety net for Scotland’s banks. There may be few Scottish banks in any case, as the larger ones would probably move south of the border to protect shareholders and reassure customers.” Dame Deanne Julius, former Monetary Policy Committee member. 18/
“Sterlingisation would be an unusual option for an independent Scotland as most similar regimes are run by countries that are political dependencies of the anchor country, and have populations of less than 1 million.” Paul Donovan, global economist, UBS 19/
"[With Sterlingisation Scotland] would likely have to run trade surpluses, which would require internal adjustements to achieve, depressing domestic demand & crushing growth" David Folkers Landau, Chief Economist of Deutsche Bank 20/
"To defend its banking system or to have a back stop for its banking system [Scotland would] probably need to build up some sort of reserve fund which mean essentially cutting spending for a number of years in order to build up this fund." Geogg Dyer, Financial Times 21/
"[Sterlingisation] means no monetary policy independence; nor seignorage income; would rule out BoE as an automatic lender of last resort (increasing risk to Scottish financial institutions) & would likely incur costs of reserve holdings" David Page AXA Investment Managers 22/
“No credible economist would advocate sterlingisation as the policy of choice for an independent Scotland” Richard Marsh, adviser to the SNP Growth Commission 23/
"This is not a credible position. Sterlingisation wouldn’t last a year, and if it did it would be at the expense of devastating austerity. Big rethink required." Laurie MacFarlane, Economics Editor, Open Democracy 24/
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