#Superforecaster

Michael Bishop

thatMikeBishop

Why is it so rarely noted that forecasting is actually crucial to informing all kinds of policy? Traditional social science and policy research is great for understanding what happened in

Gabriel Recchia

mesotronium

Our paper on how well experts and laypeople forecast the size of the COVID-19 pandemic in the UK (back in April) is out: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0250935 @d_spiegel @alex_freeman Short answer: Not ve

Andrew Boswell #KeepTheLockdown

Andrew9Boswell

THREAD#cummings blog edit & Dangers of #SyntheticBiology 1. Yes Cummings over-egged his #superforecaster skills and he only edited #coronavirus into his blog on April 14thhttps://twitter.com/FullFact/status/1265342435871174656?s=19 ht

Patrick McKenzie

patio11

A very interesting conversation about forecasting the future (with the Superforecaster guy), where it tends to pick up predictive alpha, the sociological makeup of people who repeatedly make good predictions,

Michael Govern Ready

mikegove12

Extracts from the plague diary of Mark ne-Francois-PepysMay 27thACT V. SCENE I. Durham. Ante-room in Barnard Castle.Enter Doctor MATT HANCOCK and a Waiting-Gentlewoman, LIZ TRUSS.1/11 DOCTOR HANCOCKI have two nights

Dr Rob Palmer

RobertCPalmer13

Let's take a forensic look at #DominicCummnings conduct during lockdown. S.3 of the Ministerial Code deals with appointments of special advisers and refers to the 'Code of Conduct for Special