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Carl T. Bergstrom
CT_Bergstrom
The only way we can gett back to work and play without a disastrous second wave of disease is through testing on a massive scale, coupled with (IMO) contact tracing
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Today brings a bizarre news story from the @WSJ about how everyone is being mean to poor John Ioannidis because of his coronavirus contrarianism. It's behind a paywall, but I'll
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I know I should be so far over this, but tonight I'm again reeling at the number of people who think my concern over the COVID-19 pandemic arises from some
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1. I believe that if #SARSCoV2 is allowed to spread uncontrolled through an entire nation, it will be an unprecedented humanitarian disaster. Every possible measure should be taken to prevent
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1. An hour ago I posted a thread explaining the concept of herd immunity and the problem of overshoot, whereby an epidemic infects more people that are required for herd
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Please note: By recklessly publishing low-quality information about the #2019nCov outbreak, @DrEricDing has risen from a handful of twitter followers to over 75,000 in a matter of days. He claims
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1. When plotting epidemic curves or death totals, should we divide by population size? Here on twitter this question has generated a lot more heat than light. The answer is
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We're far enough into this pandemic that I'm seeing something interesting happen. Epidemiologists start talking about a new result, such as the NEJM paper on a high rate of asymptomatic
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OK, here are some numbers that really surprise me. Of 200+ women presenting for delivery in NYC, one in six (!!) test positive for #SARSCoV2 with the vast majority of
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Oh man these guys are lucky that I'm spending 100 hours a week dealing with #COVID19 right now.https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/03075079.2020.1723533(retweeting b/c original tweet was deleted) While I don't have the time to
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This worse-than-useless #COVID19 graph is making the rounds. The problem with it is in the early stages, epidemics spread at the same rate irrespective of country size. When you divide
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I have a very basic question about the @IHME_UW model. To me, the cone of uncertainty is very odd here. It leaps to a maximum one day into the future
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