https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🧵" title="Thread" aria-label="Emoji: Thread">/Federally-funded retail pharmacy partnership has been allocated 72,400,740 doses as of May 2, 2021.

source: CDC

Based on publicly available data from the CDC/HHS, it is unclear how many of the 72.4 million doses:
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🔸" title="Kleine orangene Raute" aria-label="Emoji: Kleine orangene Raute">have actually been administered vs. how many are in storage
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🔸" title="Kleine orangene Raute" aria-label="Emoji: Kleine orangene Raute">carried-over from the long-term care vaccination program (ended April 23, 2021)

source: CDC/HHS

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="👀" title="Augen" aria-label="Emoji: Augen"> I estimate that ~545,000 doses have been wasted via the retail pharmacy program

This is based on historical data obtained by @KHNews
(ie. 0.753% x 72.4 million) https://khn.org/news/article/cvs-and-walgreens-have-wasted-more-vaccine-doses-than-most-states-combined/">https://khn.org/news/arti...

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🔥" title="Feuer" aria-label="Emoji: Feuer"> Nearly 1 in 4 COVID-19 vaccine doses had been *allocated* to the Federal Retail Pharmacy Program as of May 2

We do not, know how many of these were actually *administered* in retail pharmacies, however.

source: CDC

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="👀" title="Augen" aria-label="Emoji: Augen"> In the 19 states (below) the share of COVID-19 vaccine doses allocated to retail pharmacies is higher than the national average (> 24%)

source: CDC

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🔥" title="Feuer" aria-label="Emoji: Feuer"> Kentucky ranks #1 in doses allocated to retail pharmacies, but 27th nationally in terms of % of population fully vaccinated.

In Kentucky, nearly 1 in 3 COVID-19 vaccine doses are allocated to retail pharmacies.

source: CDC

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="👀" title="Augen" aria-label="Emoji: Augen"> Kentucky, South Carolina, and Nevada are the 3 states with the highest share of doses allocated to retail pharmacies *and* they are lagging in their vaccination efforts overall according to a @KFF analysis.

source: CDC

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="👀" title="Augen" aria-label="Emoji: Augen"> Maryland, Illinois, and Massachusetts rank 4-6 in terms of states with the highest share of COVID-19 vaccine doses allocated to retail pharmacies *and* they are doing well and/or above-average in their vaccination efforts according to a @KFF analysis.

source: CDC

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🔥" title="Feuer" aria-label="Emoji: Feuer">Taken together, the data suggests that the federal retail pharmacy program is:
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🔸" title="Kleine orangene Raute" aria-label="Emoji: Kleine orangene Raute">good strategy in the Northeast
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🔸" title="Kleine orangene Raute" aria-label="Emoji: Kleine orangene Raute">bad fit for the South + Nevada
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🔸" title="Kleine orangene Raute" aria-label="Emoji: Kleine orangene Raute">neither good or bad for the rest of the country

source: CDC, KFF
KFF analysis URL: https://www.kff.org/policy-watch/supply-vs-demand-which-states-are-reaching-their-covid-19-vaccine-tipping-points/">https://www.kff.org/policy-wa...

So, why is the federal retail pharmacy program good in some instances, but not in others? At least part of the difference has to do with the ratio of population-to-pharmacies https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="👀" title="Augen" aria-label="Emoji: Augen">https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="⤵️" title="Nach rechts zeigender Pfeil mit Krümmung nach unten" aria-label="Emoji: Nach rechts zeigender Pfeil mit Krümmung nach unten">

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🔸" title="Kleine orangene Raute" aria-label="Emoji: Kleine orangene Raute">Nevada: 11300 persons/pharmacy
vs.
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🔸" title="Kleine orangene Raute" aria-label="Emoji: Kleine orangene Raute">Massachusetts: 9500 persons/pharmacy https://twitter.com/datadrivenmd/status/1390846924077428741">https://twitter.com/datadrive...

It may also have something to do with the pharmacies themselves. Nevada, for instance, there are proportionally more Albertsons and Smith’s pharmacies than in Maryland (both states have the roughly the same number of pharmacies per capita) https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="👀" title="Augen" aria-label="Emoji: Augen">https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="⤵️" title="Nach rechts zeigender Pfeil mit Krümmung nach unten" aria-label="Emoji: Nach rechts zeigender Pfeil mit Krümmung nach unten"> https://twitter.com/datadrivenmd/status/1390852820270686213">https://twitter.com/datadrive...

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🔥" title="Feuer" aria-label="Emoji: Feuer"> Excluding pharmacies without confirmed availability the number of *actual* vaccination sites drops by:
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🔸" title="Kleine orangene Raute" aria-label="Emoji: Kleine orangene Raute">27% in Nevada
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🔸" title="Kleine orangene Raute" aria-label="Emoji: Kleine orangene Raute">42% in Maryland loses
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🔸" title="Kleine orangene Raute" aria-label="Emoji: Kleine orangene Raute">47% in South Carolina

Let that sink in.

If you’ve got a 30 min lunch break, are you going to roll the dice?

cc @WHCOVIDResponse