A thread on the worse that is coming- only 20 ish days from now! #COVIDIndia is a humanitarian crises https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🆘" title="Quadratisches SOS" aria-label="Emoji: Quadratisches SOS">

Daily deaths are best predictor of pandemic course & @IHME_UW estimates mid-May peak of 13300 deaths/day. (prepare for worst)
Context we are now at 2800 ish deaths/day !

The mid-May peak translates to estimated need of
•33,77,700+ beds
•3,44,400+ ICU beds
The humanitarian crises in 20ish days can only be mitigated by health systems preparedness & global solidarity. This is anhttps://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🆘" title="Quadratisches SOS" aria-label="Emoji: Quadratisches SOS">to the world from https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇮🇳" title="Flagge von Indien" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge von Indien">

For mid-May peak of 3,44,470 ICU patients ( @IHME_UW estimate ), some back of hand calculations using Ind Soc Critical Care Med ICU standards.
We will at least need
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="▶️" title="Nach rechts zeigendes Dreieck" aria-label="Emoji: Nach rechts zeigendes Dreieck"> 68,894 ICU trained Doctorshttps://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🩺" title="Stethoskop" aria-label="Emoji: Stethoskop">
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="▶️" title="Nach rechts zeigendes Dreieck" aria-label="Emoji: Nach rechts zeigendes Dreieck">1,72,235 ICU trained Nurses https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="👨‍⚕️" title="Medizinischer Angestellter" aria-label="Emoji: Medizinischer Angestellter">https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="👩‍⚕️" title="Woman health worker" aria-label="Emoji: Woman health worker">
Non-ICU overwhelmed to count !https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🆘" title="Quadratisches SOS" aria-label="Emoji: Quadratisches SOS">

All this means that 959,561 Indians will be dead due to COVID by Aug 1. Worst case - 1,04,55,606 dead . There will be no one in https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇮🇳" title="Flagge von Indien" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge von Indien"> who has not lost a loved one .
Lockdown+ direct transfer(= 30 day wage stat)
+Free N95mask + global aid is our ONLY way out of #COVIDWave2 https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🆘" title="Quadratisches SOS" aria-label="Emoji: Quadratisches SOS">