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I rarely do this on a macro-level but here's a more top down view of what Goldman Sachs Expects for 2021:
They expect the FED to stay VERY accommodative
(no rate hikes) for the foreseeable future
They expect Global GDP to recover strongly to 5.4% in 2021
They expect the FED to stay VERY accommodative (no rate hikes) for the foreseeable future
They expect Global GDP to recover strongly to 5.4% in 2021
They don't expect Inflation to be an issue for now They expect Total return in 2021 of about 8% for US equity and 8.6% for the MSCI All Country Index
Good case Scenario for US Equities: +17% in 2021Bad Case Scenario for US Equities: -19% in 2021Base Case Scenario for US Equities: 8% in 2021
The Implied Equity Risk Premium(ERP) is still attractive at 3.5% and is considerably better than the negative ERP during the Tech Bubble 
CC: @saxena_puru @mukund
Equities are likely to have positive return 87% of the time when the economy has been expanding, as is the case now.
Since 2018. there has been NEGATIVE Fund flow into Equities There is a $3.1 trillion difference between equity outflows and cash/bond inflows since 2019, suggestingplenty of capacity for investors to rebalance into equities.
They are tactically OW Value Vs Growth and Small Cap and Large Cap
Risks to their 2021 Outlook: Covid, US-China Relationship, Domestic Policies, "Techlash", Cybersecurity, Geopolitical and Recession.
Shocks like pandemics, tsunamis and wars are inevitable, but since they cannot be predicted, it is best to ride them out
The United States is currently administering most doses per day (~339k) in the world, but still far short of the amount of doses distributed and initial projections.
Key Takeaways:
Strong pickup in global growth
Accommodative monetary and fiscal policy
Low risk of recession:
Abundance of risks:
Attractive portfolio returns:
Stay invested:
US preeminence is intact
Strong pickup in global growthAccommodative monetary and fiscal policyLow risk of recession:Abundance of risks:Attractive portfolio returns: Stay invested: US preeminence is intact
Current High Conviction Portfolio (By Size)Longs:
$SDGR
$NGA
$CCIV
$FSLY
$ABNB
$W
$BFT
$AJAX
$NGAB.U
$APSG
$BTCG
Please share with your followers as you see fit:
CC:
@mukund
@saxena_puru
@BrianFeroldi
@JonahLupton
@TheMarkCooke
@LuoshengPeng
@GrowthStockDoc
@SpacGuru
@howardlindzon
@jablamsky
@JoeySolitro
CC:
@mukund
@saxena_puru
@BrianFeroldi
@JonahLupton
@TheMarkCooke
@LuoshengPeng
@GrowthStockDoc
@SpacGuru
@howardlindzon
@jablamsky
@JoeySolitro
