Read on Twitter
This is a plot of homicides & fatal police shootings by US state, 2015-18 (Please note the Y axes differ by a factor of 10). Data is from @washingtonpost & @CDCgov. They correlate at 0.87. This ecological correlation suggests fatal police shootings associate w/homicides. (cont'd)
...disaggregating the years and using each state & year (2015-2018) as a separate data point for homicides and fatal police shootings (200 vs. 200 pts.), the correlation holds at 0.85. But, this also suggests fatal police force has important differences across states....(cont'd.)
...converting homicides & fatal police shootings to rates/100k population drops the correlation to 0.33. Police in less violent states don't necessarily use force at lower rates, and some use force at disproportionately high rates, even if it's in proportion to homicides.(cont'd)
Arizona is well-known in terms of elevated police use of fatal force. It really stands out for its police using lethal force at rates that don't associate with similar violent crime rate, or with fatal police use of force rates across America. (cont'd.) https://www.azcentral.com/in-depth/news/local/arizona-investigations/2019/06/19/arizona-phoenix-police-shootings-officers-record-levels/3029860002/
As is New Mexico. The rate cited in this article, 9.59 people killed by police per million in 2018, was below its four year running average of 9.8. It led the nation. The average rate for the bottom 25 states is 2.15. The average for the entire US is 3.54. https://www.abqjournal.com/1266910/nm-ranks-no-1-for-fatal-police-shootings.html
Colorado, too. Elevated rates in states like CO, AZ & NM can't be attributed to short-term spikes in police shootings. The trends prevail over years. They suggest tactics, policies, laws & culture matter, as much as the level of violence police respond to. https://www.cpr.org/2020/01/31/meth-guns-aggressive-tactics-combine-to-give-colorado-one-of-nations-highest-police-shooting-rates/
Reducing violent crime, especially homicides, can reduce fatal police shootings. But so will teaching police de-escalation using evidence-based practices, and focusing on departments with elevated rates of police shootings that are sustained and aberrant. https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/deescalation-training-police/2020/10/27/3a345830-14a8-11eb-ad6f-36c93e6e94fb_story.html
Fatal police shootings in the US have held constant for 5 years running. It suggests in terms of both reforming police approaches to lethal force & reducing the level of dangerous violence we ask police to respond to, the changes have been at the margins. https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/investigations/police-shootings-database/
