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Thread 1/n: Several days ago I saw a video from @GregOnTheRight that purported to demonstrate that thousands of mail-in ballots were recorded as received by the government on the same date or prior to the date they were sent. This is the original video: https://twitter.com/local_aperture/status/1329720449127780354?s=10
I set out to verify the claims in the video by obtaining the dataset from Pennsylvania's "Open Data Pennsylvania" website. I was able to find 2020 Primary election data, but not General election data. On 11/20 I messaged @GregOnTheRight on instagram to ask where he obtained the
dataset. He responded that numerous people had messaged him saying that the data had been taken down. I was later able to find the URL from a blog post. The data has, in fact, been restricted from public view. The URL throws a 403 (forbidden), not the well known 404 (not found).
I implored Greg to upload the data. Instead he directed me to a dolthub repo here: https://www.dolthub.com/repositories/dolthub/pa_mail_ballots_2020 Greg says he still has his local copy but he has not uploaded it. I also obtained a separate copy from @pjcolbeck 's blogpost here: https://letsfixstuff.org/2020/11/kraken-fashion-statement-suit-after-suit/ . .
I haven't yet verified that the data sets are identical, but the query results are the same, and the number of rows in each are the same: 3,095,606 rows.
Now, FINALLY, we can run the relevant query on both sets:
Now, FINALLY, we can run the relevant query on both sets:
There are 58,175 ballots that have a Mailed Date LATER THAN OR EQUAL TO its Returned date. Of those, 34,889 were recorded as sent and returned on the same day. The remainder, (23,286) were recorded as returned before they were sent. Clearly, this makes no sense.
Before anyone attempts to argue that these dates were misinterpreted, we can rely on the still-available primary election data description, and Greg's grainy video of the removed data description.
This is very odd and requires explanation. The fact that the dataset has been removed from public view also requires explanation. Is this fraud? I don't know. If I were to steal an election I wouldn't make such an obvious error, but it certainly shows systemic problems in PA.
Now, here is some housekeeping so others can verify my work (please do so):
This is the dolthub repo: https://www.dolthub.com/repositories/dolthub/pa_mail_ballots_2020
This is the dolthub repo: https://www.dolthub.com/repositories/dolthub/pa_mail_ballots_2020
This is the command used to export the repo, once cloned locally:
"dolt table export --file-type=csv pa pa.csv"
This is the md5 output of resultant csv (for verification): 299e9a96892ac8e0ce390d87cd262717
"dolt table export --file-type=csv pa pa.csv"
This is the md5 output of resultant csv (for verification): 299e9a96892ac8e0ce390d87cd262717
This is the url of the dataset that now throws a 403 (once you have created an account you will see the 403) https://data.pa.gov/Government-Efficiency-Citizen-Engagement/2020-General-Election-Mail-Ballot-Requests-Departm/mcba-yywm/data
This is the md5 of @pjcolbeck 's upload:
MD5 (2020-PA-Ballots-Reuested-Returned.csv) = 0e9a38beba9c911374872eebe2a250e5
MD5 (2020-PA-Ballots-Reuested-Returned.csv) = 0e9a38beba9c911374872eebe2a250e5
And here is the MySQL dump of both datasets in two separate tables on Google Drive. It's over 1.5 gigs. https://drive.google.com/file/d/1OwKb2-GueZyYpGA7-T4FvEF7ZAg_2LcV/view?usp=sharing
md5: 04947744e8d5e1bbd9db4f51ed762617
If there are any issues loading the dataset, please let me know. Greg needs to upload his copy still.
md5: 04947744e8d5e1bbd9db4f51ed762617
If there are any issues loading the dataset, please let me know. Greg needs to upload his copy still.
Finally, I'm not sure what this means and its possible both Greg and I have blundered somehow. If so, please offer your explanation or results.
But. I find it very odd that the government of Pennsylvania has restricted the data from public view. This requires explanation.
But. I find it very odd that the government of Pennsylvania has restricted the data from public view. This requires explanation.
Update: twitter user @UGP_Craig informed me that a copy of the data was archived by archive dot org and is available here: https://web.archive.org/web/20201115001813mp_/https://data.pa.gov/api/views/mcba-yywm/rows.csv?accessType=DOWNLOAD
I haven’t had a chance to look at it yet.
I haven’t had a chance to look at it yet.
