If I had to guess, I& #39;d take the under on Biden& #39;s current 9.5 (!) point lead. But I don& #39;t know. The polls show Biden doing super duper well among independents and those propel his big leads despite pretty decent numbers for Republicans on party ID. https://twitter.com/BrendanNyhan/status/1313987510888996864">https://twitter.com/BrendanNy...

And is it *that* hard to believe that a winning a debate + the president catching COVID (along with a dozen other people in the WH) while obviously not taking enough precautions would move the polls by 2-3 points? That& #39;s a pretty small move, all things considered.

The other thing I don& #39;t love about the obsession with partisan non-response bias is that if you& #39;re feeling too despondent about the election to answer a pollster& #39;s phone call, I& #39;d also imagine you& #39;re less likely to turn out to vote.