A consequential day (& next few weeks! for Brexit). A few thoughts. There is no chance of a “tunnel” next week. Gaps on substance too large. Instead, talks will move into a “restricted format”. This is a more intensive process, involving fewer officials from both sides 1/

Even in a best-case scenario, the 15-16 October Council will not deliver a deal, but could instruct @MichelBarnier to conclude one. A “tunnel” would then follow. In a worst case scenario, the EU27 will signal willingness to keep talking, but ramp up their no deal preparations 2/

Key question now is less about policy gaps & more abt political willingness. Both sides see parameters of deal. Question is, can they sell it if they do it? So for Bxl, purpose of today& #39;s call is to figure out if Johnson wants a deal - & is willing to concede ground to get one 3/

But this applies equally to EU too. The latest French polls show @EmmanuelMacron dipping sharply in public confidence, now 6 points down to 29%, given his Govt& #39;s handling of Covid-19. Can he now afford to sell out fish? The next few weeks will answer that question - for UK & EU