Biden& #39;s lead in our polling averages before/after these polls:

MN +6.4 -> +7.4
NH: +8.4 -> +6.9
NV: +6.5 -> +5.9
WI: +6.9 -> +6.5 https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1304754901902340102">https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn...

So Biden& #39;s losing ground in 3 of 4, but the one where he& #39;s gaining (MN) is arguably the most important of the four. Why? WI has been polled a ton, so no one poll will influence our model that much. The other 3 haven& #39;t been polled much, but MN has more electoral votes than NH+NV.

Of the four key Midwest/Rust Belt battlegrounds, we& #39;re getting a pretty clear hierarchy where WI and PA are more competitive than MI and MN. You wouldn& #39;t go so far as to say Biden doesn& #39;t need to worry about MI/MN, but they& #39;ve become less likely tipping points.