1/n. How has transmission varied after the (world& #39;s largest) lockdown in India? When should we exit the lockdown and how do we do it safely?
Read on as we explore these questions and more in our latest #COVIDー19 study from #AIIMS & #IISER #MedTwitter
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="📌" title="Pushpin" aria-label="Emoji: Pushpin"> https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.05.13.20096826">https://doi.org/10.1101/2...

2/n.
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="📌" title="Pushpin" aria-label="Emoji: Pushpin">significant transmission drop after #lockdownindia, but Rt as of 22 Apr still above 1
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="📌" title="Pushpin" aria-label="Emoji: Pushpin">smaller and later #secondwave if (regional) lockdowns relaxed farther after peak has passed
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="📌" title="Pushpin" aria-label="Emoji: Pushpin">expanded #testing an effective exit strategy, will influence degree of return to normalcy

some observations from the study-
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="📌" title="Pushpin" aria-label="Emoji: Pushpin">Contagion seeding
here is a fig showing how COVID-19 was seeded in India by imported cases (https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="✈️" title="Airplane" aria-label="Emoji: Airplane">~550 cases; stage1) in March. Imported cases started dropping a day after flight ban, however local transmission had begun and kept growing (stage2)

4/n.
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="📌" title="Pushpin" aria-label="Emoji: Pushpin"> #Transmission trend in #India
-spike in late Mar (tablighi cluster) - compare w mobility drop on 23 March
-continuous down trend from Apr (effect of #lockdown+)
-last estimated Rt=1.15 on 22 Apr (above threshold of 1)

When will we reach Rt<=1https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="❓" title="Red question mark ornament" aria-label="Emoji: Red question mark ornament">(some states alrdy have)