some data on how covid-19 has affected electricity usage. As with the data on public transit that I tweeted last week, most of the drop occurred b4 ppl were forced to modify behaviour. This is one reason why models that focus on govt orders are inaccurate
https://nyti.ms/3c3iol3 ">https://nyti.ms/3c3iol3&q...

Here& #39;s some of that transit data. these are parts of the US that were subject to different policies at different times. But all these ppl make decisions within the same media environment. as do their employers, which set their own policies. The role of govt is somewhat overstated

This is one of the main reasons I found the epidemiological modelling in that Imperial College report last month to be so unpersuasive. government policy was presented as a sawtooth function which was either 1 or 0. The last month shows this is a completely unrealistic assumption

This is why it& #39;s silly to attack ppl for opining on these issues even if they don& #39;t have backgrounds in math, health sciences or other tech disciplines. These models are sensitive to assumptions about human behaviour. And no one has a monopoly on knowledge about how we& #39;ll behave